Work in Progress

Bridging the Financing Gap: Exploring the Drivers of Clean Energy Project Bankability in Ghana with Theophilus Acheampong, Dennis Asare, Amprofi Agyemang, and Bridget Menyeh.

Abstract

Access to finance remains a major constraint for many firms despite the potential of Sub-Saharan Africa’s clean energy sector to the drive the continent’s energy transition and access goals. This paper investigates the key factors influencing the bankability of clean energy projects in Ghana using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM). The study examines five latent variables: project readiness, financial structures, experienced project teams, risk mitigation, and alignment with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGS) and Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria. A survey was administered to 80 respondents comprising clean energy companies, policymakers, and financiers. The PLS-SEM approach was used to identify significant relationships between these variables and the overall bankability of projects. Our findings show that bankability is multidimensional and determined by a combination of direct project enablers and indirect interdependencies. Projects are more likely to be bankable if they have clear regulatory approvals, defined objectives, and undertaken feasibility studies, along with thorough financial modelling. Experienced teams, strong stakeholder support, and robust risk mitigation strategies also enhance bankability. While SDG-ESG alignment is increasingly important, it plays a supporting rather than central role in securing clean energy project financing. The findings provide practical insights for policymakers, clean energy developers and financiers in Ghana and other emerging economies.

Tackling the Extensive Margin of Indian Coal Power with Sugandha Srivastav.

Abstract

The advent of spatially disaggregated data allows to us map where coal and gas fired power plants are located with unprecedented precision. Leveraging this data, we calculate the global health burden urban populations that live in proximity to fossil-fueled power plants. We first investigate how much of global fossil-fueled energy generation capacity is located within 25km from population centres, followed by a quantification of the people potentially exposed to the resultant pollution. Lastly, we estimate the total life years lost as a result of proximity to coal- and gas-fired power plants.

Sunlight as Security? Load-shedding and Solar Adoption with Sugandha Srivastav.

The Labour Market Impacts of Green Industrial Policy in South Africa: Evidence from Job Ads with Sugandha Srivastav, Sam Fankhauser and Lorenzo Agnelli.

Mitigating the Impact of Global Food Price Shocks: Pass-throughs and Fiscal Policy Strategies for Climate Vulnerable Countries with Fulvia Marotta and Jasper Verschuur.

Abstract In light of the growing climate and non-climate related pressures on the global food system, this paper addresses three related questions: To what extent do global food price shocks pass through to local markets, how are these pass-throughs conditioned by country-level idiosyncrasies, and can fiscal policy effectively support shock response and longer-term price stabilisation? We estimate global-to-local food price pass-throughs in a Bayesian VAR for most countries in the world using publicly available data sources. To further investigate cross-dependencies in vulnerable countries, our model is then extended to include multiple covariate shocks for the Sub-Saharan African sub-sample. Decomposing food price shocks over time, space, and contemporaneous oil price and harvest shocks, we construct fiscal policy counterfactuals to evaluate hypothetical coping strategies.

Exposure to Deforestation: How Robust is Statistical Inference to Choices in Land Cover Modelling? with Stafford Nichols and Stephan Dietrich.

Abstract Earth observation data has greatly enriched social science research, especially in contexts where data is otherwise scarce or likely to suffer from measurement error. However, social scientists may not have a good enough understanding of remote sensing techniques to avoid unforeseen side effects when using this type of data. Economists often combine gridded land cover data with survey data by reducing the former to locally centred summary statistics at the interview locations provided by the latter. The decisions taken in this reduction process can affect the resulting exposure metric and subsequent statistical inference. Using interview locations in eleven African countries from a large international survey, we calculate respondents' exposure to deforestation in 108 slightly different ways. To illustrate how this can affect inference, we model respondents' subjective well-being scores on the different versions of their exposure to local deforestation in a multi-level, linear mixed model. We find significant negative effects and insignificant effects depending on our parameter decisions. Finally, we provide guidance and strategies for social scientists to consider when employing land cover data.

Resting Working Papers

Blended Finance for Nature?

Abstract Blended Finance, the use of concessional capital to crowd in private investment, has emerged as a new paradigm for financing sustainable development. To scrutinise the economic rationales behind this practice in a dynamic setting, this paper develops an inter-temporal model of loan provision and tests the implications of blending in equilibrium. Blending provides optimal structuring of finance when the aim is to ease a project's credit constraints before it has achieved financial maturity. However, the benefits of blending subsequently decrease in an investment's private to public pay- off ratio and seize to exist entirely upon reaching maturity. Projects with significant externalities may never reach financial maturity, conditional on the extent to which commercial investors can monetise them. In these cases, grants and interest rate subsidies promise higher societal returns over the project's lifecycle.

Policy Briefs and Reports

The Economic Benefits of Renewables and How to Share Them. Fankhauser, S., Agnelli, L., Collins-Tobin, M., Khushnud, F., Luscombe, H., Omukuti, J., Ravigne, E., Srivastav, S. and Weidinger, M. (2025). Report, Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford. Paper, Press Release, The Conversation, Event

Empowering People with Green Skills for Climate-Compatible Growth. Yang, P., Hirmer, S., and Weidinger, M. (2025). Policy Brief, Climate Compatible Growth Programme. Paper

Institutional Architecture and Mobilisation of Private Capital for Adaptation: The Case of Rwanda. Weidinger, M. and Ranger, N. (2025). Compendium of Practice from a Global Community of Ministries of Finance and Leading Organizations, Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action. Paper

The Fiscal Case for Adaptation and Improved Debt Sustainability Analysis. Weidinger, M. and Ranger, N. (2025). Compendium of Practice from a Global Community of Ministries of Finance and Leading Organizations, Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action. Paper

Towards UK Systemic Resilience to International Cascading Climate Risks. Ranger,N., Lambin, R. Verschuur, J., Weidinger, M., Briffa, G., and Sabuco, J. (2025). Report, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford. Paper

Enabling Adaptation: Sustainable Fiscal Policies for Climate Resilient Development and Infrastructure. Ranger, N., Weidinger, M., Bernhofen, M., Burke, M., Lambin, R., Puranasamriddhi, A., Sabuco, J., and Spacey Martin, R. (2025). Report, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford. Paper, Citation

The Vogue Business Climate Finance Glossary. Webb, B., Turns, A. (eds.), Maslin, M., Dietzel, A., Maalouf, A., Zhang, D., Specht, D, Morsing, M., Weidinger, M., Yan, M., Nahidi, N., O’Hare, P., and Sivarajah, S. (2025). Online Glossary, Vogue Business. Vogue, The Conversation

Audio and Video

Emissions Trading Schemes. Weidinger, M. (2025). Video, The Conversation Quick Climate Dictionary. YouTube

Dissertations

Does Exposure to Deforestation Affect Subjective Well-Being? Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. Weidinger, M. (2023). Master’s Thesis in Economic and Financial Research. Paper, Citation

Child Labour in Response to Climate Change. Weidinger, M. (2021). Master’s Thesis in Public Policy and Human Development. Paper, Citation, Code

Earlier Work on European Politics

MEP’s Receptiveness to Third Country Interests in the Framework of ACP-EU Parliamentary Diplomacy. Senge, P. and Weidinger, M. (2020). Student Essay Competition, NORTIA. Paper, Citation, Code, News, News

Ethno-national Confrontation and Electoral Choice. Weidinger, M. (2019). Peace and Progress 4(1), 3-29. Paper, Citation